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It's time to run the numbers for Orlando City SC in the playoffs

• Orlando City SC likely to enter post-season seventh
• Groups sees their first match at home
• The squad controls their post-season destiny

By Chuck Wharton

Aug 31, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando City midfielder Facundo Torres (10) celebrates after he scored a goal against Nashville SC during the first half at Inter&Co Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 31, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando City midfielder Facundo Torres (10) celebrates after he scored a goal against Nashville SC during the first half at Inter&Co Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
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It’s time to figure out the probability of where Orlando City SC. After a dim beginning of this MLS season, the team has come a long way.

When this MLS season started for Orlando City SC, supporters wondered what awful transformation had occurred. Then they wondered if they shouldn’t give up.

Now, the team has risen just over the sweetest part of the MLS playoff line. The team must make many adjustments and spend hours in strategy planning and drills.

This required quick development of targeted mental drills. They have been successful. So Orlando City SC has achieved an in-season team rebuild without changing out many players. The rebuild was carried out with each player.

Inter Miami CF has become the first team to clinch the MLS playoffs. Playoff Status runs the post-season probabilities for every team in many leagues to make their post-season. And they have an obvious picture of how Orlando City SC will come out once this regular season ends.

That picture becomes very clear running probabilities after Orlando City finished the Nashville SC shutout. Following that match, Orlando has left four home games and two away games. At that point, City has a record at home of 4-5-4 and away 6-5-3.

These prognosticators place the highest probability, 36%, that Orlando City will enter the playoffs right at the spot they approached their final seven matches. That’s the seventh place in the MLS Eastern Conference.

The top nine spots in the conference make the playoffs. But the top seven get in without a playoff qualifier game.

They place the 36% probability in green. That means Orlando City as a team controls its destiny to make this spot. The sixth spot is the next most probable at 22% (green in color).

Once Orlando gets in, who will be the first opponent? After running the probabilities, the group puts a 76% likelihood of a bye. But if the bye doesn’t happen, this group puts the highest probability, 5%, that Orlando City will meet Toronto FC. And at 4%, the probability favors this match in Orlando.

The most important finding by the group is not probable at all. Orlando City SC controls its destiny in making the MLS playoffs this season. They’ve worked hard to keep it green.