More complex fun with Orlando City SC numbers
• The numbers reflect good momentum
• This statistic introduced in 2012
Previous posts showed how simple calculations can explain Orlando City SC players' performance. Now we’ll look at Expected Goal.
It’s more complicated to calculate Expected Goal than Goal Differential. But once all the shots and Expected Goals are seen, it’s as valuable as any statistic to show how well Orlando City SC players perform.
Expected Goal measures the likelihood of a shot going into the net. It was introduced in 2012 by Sam Green of Opta Analyst. It assigns a value for each shot of 0.00 to 1.00. It’s in widespread use by football leagues including MLS.
Opta provides the calculations to all users, who post them in turn. MLS uses the basic calculations in its in-game feed and the cumulative figures in a leaders list. But these totals don’t tell a story that goes anywhere. At the end of Gameweek 24, Colorado Rapids are at the top of MLS in this category with 49.25.
In overall standings for the same period, Colorado stands fourth in the MLS Conference West. The next two are Los Angeles Galaxy, third overall, and Los Angeles FC, first.
To get more of the story, the totals have to be analyzed.
Outside statistical analysts do this. It can’t be done easily with a pocket calculator or in your head.
Orlando City SC has accumulated 31 expected goals through 22 matches. But through those matches, one of the analysts reported. Orlando allowed 32 expected goals, with a difference of -1. Reaching that difference tells where City is headed at this point of the MLS regular season.
Orlando has improved their negative goal differential, moving the team above the playoff line. Only three teams with a negative differential are above the line in the MLS Conference East and Orlando is on top of those.
Only one team in MLS East has a negative Expected Goal. This is Inter Miami with -1.4. Next up on the list is Charlotte FC with a difference of 1.4. Orlando gets a crack at taking them down and moving above them in September.
But the real test comes later in July when the Lions meet again with New York City FC. The opponent now enjoys a difference of 6.1, fifth overall in the East.
When they last met, New York City beat Orlando 4-2.
The Lions will have to keep building on momentum. They’ll turn a tough early season positive as they turn their Expected Goals difference and Goals Differential statistics positive.