Previewing Orlando City SC at New England Revolution by the numbers

In one sense, Orlando City SC has 12 MLS regular season games left. In another sense, there is just the next match, the July 13 game vs. New England Revolution.

Looking at the basic record of both teams, they are remarkably even. New England Revolution is 3-2 in their last five matches. Orlando City SC is 3-1-1 in that same period. As you'll see, the past five are much more important than the season-long record.

As we’ve studied in previous posts, there are additional statistics that tell a more complete story. The home team for this match, Orlando City SC, has an Expected Goal Difference of -1.0 or an Expected Goal Difference per 90 minutes of -0.05, according to an analyst.

Both teams average weakly for the season in the Expected Goals measurement. But Orlando City is stronger than their opponent. Yet Orlando will need more than a better performance on Expected Goals to predict a winning story in their upcoming match with New England.

Let’s also consult the simplest MLS statistic, the Goal Differential. Both Orlando City and New England are negative in this statistic. Yet Orlando City is much stronger with a -4 differential, compared with -18 for New England.

Overall, New England comes to Orlando with a record of 7-12-1 and 4-6-1 at home. Season-long, Orlando is 7-9-6 overall, and 4-4-3 away. The resulting MLS East Conference records place Orlando seventh and New England 12th.

So by these records and standings, New England’s chances to win over Orlando at Gillette Stadium remain slim. But these numbers are season-long. They would lead us to ignore an important aspect of this upcoming game.

Depending on what has been happening recently with teams, looking at long-term numbers may not be helpful to consider chances for a match to happen soon. This season-long look ignores Orlando City’s recent dramatically positive momentum.

During the past five matches, the Lions scored 15 goals – the most in a five-game span in the team’s history. The previous record is 14 goals over five matches in 2018.

To see the difference looking at a longer span this season, Orlando players scored 17 goals in the first 17 games of this season.

To beat their six-game span record, they’ll have to put three in New England’s net in the next match. Lions players are enjoying the same momentum as the team as a whole. So they can do it.l

Left winger Martin Ojeda has contributed to a goal – two scores and an assist – in each of his three matches since becoming a starter on June 28.

Attacking midfielder Facundo Torres has four goals and three assists in his past five matches.

Defender Robin Jansson recently scored his first goal in over two years, while completing 34 of 35 passes, winning six duels, plus two dribbles. His goal was assisted by defending midfielder Wilder Cartagena.

The recent momentum of Orlando City SC will carry them through this contest for a win and likely another shutout. They’ll need not only to maintain the momentum but also to build on it.

 The team may no longer slip below seventh in the conference. The top seven teams enter the post-season without a playoff qualifier.